A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
